Song Lulu; Cao Zhi; Dai Min
Resources Science, 2021, 43(3): 501-512
DOI: 10.18402/resci.2021.03.07
Abstract
China is the world’s largest motor vehicle manufacturer and consumer.The resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions brought by the vehicles have attracted widespread attention from scholars.Comprehensive assessment of material metabolism and carbon emission reduction potential of the vehicles are important prerequisite for policy formulation in circular economy and low-carbon development.Taking the passenger cars in China’s mainland as an example,we predict the future development of material demand,scrap,and evaluate the potential of CO2 emission reduction associated with product use based on the dynamic material flow analysis model.The results show that the demand for passenger cars will gradually decrease after reaching a peak around 2022(30~60 million per year),and will be around 30 million per year by 2050.After 2000,the amount of scrapped passenger cars has been increasing and will exceed the demand in 2040.In 2050,the amount of scrapped passenger cars will reach 30~70 million per year.The material scrap of passenger cars will exceed the material demand after 2040,and reach 37.3~73.8 million tons per year in 2050.Among five different emission reduction strategies,improving the fuel efficiency of gasoline vehicles is an effective strategy for emission reduction.Its emission reduction potential can reach 330 million tons per year,which can reduce carbon emissions by 40%.This article discussed the potential opportunities and challenges of circular economy and lowcarbon development in the vehicle sector,and prospects for the future research work.
Key words：
material metabolism; stocks; flows; passenger cars; resource management; carbon emission reduction; material flow analysis; China